Researcher: Juanxiong He
Funding source: NSF, DOE / SciDAC-CCPP
Collaborators: W. Maslowski (NPS), J. Cassano (CU), W. Gutowski (ISU), D. Lettenmeier (UW), G. Newby (ARSC/UAF), A. Roberts (ARSC/UAF), A. Kulchitsky (ARSC/UAF), D. Bromwich (OSU), Keith Hines (OSU), G. Jost (HPCMO), T. Craig (NCAR), J. Jakacki (IOPAS), M. Seefeldt (CU), C. Zhu (UW), J. Glisan (ISU), J. Kinney (NPS)
The goal is to construct a high-resolution regional arctic system model to understand and predict climate change in the Arctic.
There are two approaches: 1) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice, and land hydrology components; 2) perform multi-decadal numerical experiments using high-performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions.
The intentions are to 1) construct a high-resolution regional arctic system model; 2) determine and quantify the coupled arctic climate system processes responsible for the recent observed and future projected changes in the ice pack, regional hydrological cycle, and fresh water export into the North Atlantic; 3) assess decadal system scenarios of a seasonally / partially ice free Arctic Ocean, including their timing; 4) address the general circulation model (GCM) limitations in predicting arctic climate through the identification of physical and numerical requirements of future GCMs.
The principal benefit of this effort will be the development of a high-resolution pan-arctic climate system model that combines all major climate elements in an internally consistent framework for focused studies. Its outcome involves improved prediction of ice-free Arctic Ocean for use in policy planning. This project will be a timely contribution to the International Polar Year and to other programs as it will facilitate syntheses and integration of historical and new observations with model results.