IARC Mission and Project Overview

Mission Statement

To serve as a focal point of excellence of international collaboration and provide the arctic research community with an unprecedented opportunity to share knowledge about science in the Arctic.

Motivation

In the recently published "Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program", the Climate Change Science Committee has identified "Integrating Climate and Global Change Research" as the top priority. It is evident that the Committee recognized the importance of integration in addition to the advances in each discipline. IARC has directed its planning toward this type of integration for the Arctic through our national and international connections.

The recently concluded Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS), conducted under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program, emphasized in its summary report the "challenge to foster future international collaboration" in the study of arctic climate change and processes. The ACSYS report also stated, "The predictability of arctic climate is still not well characterized and should be given elevated importance." IARC's over- arching goal, as described below, is to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change prediction. Finally, ACSYS stressed the importance of the synergistic interplay between observations and modeling. In fact, the IARC science plan follows this strategy by integrating efforts in modeling with targeted observational efforts.

Our uniqueness is based on strong international coordination as a vehicle for comprehensive integration, toward which we will work through our main project entitled "Climate of the Arctic: Modeling and Processes" (CAMP).

Objectives

1. As mentioned on our mission, we divide the Arctic into the four major "spheres" under the theme of the arctic system:

1. Arctic Ocean Models and Observation
2. Arctic Atmosphere: Feedbacks, Radiation, Weather Analysis
3. Permafrost/Frozen Soil Models and Observations
4. Arctic Biota/Vegetation (Ecosystem Models)

Concrete projects for each theme are presented under our main mission "Reducing Uncertainty in Arctic Climate Change Prediction."

In the past, some of the projects chosen were pursued individually by members of the arctic science community under the umbrella of system studies of integration/synthesis. However, CAMP will distinguish itself from the past efforts by emphasizing integration of such individual, concrete projects under the four themes and combinations of them, more than pursuing individual projects.

The need for integrative efforts is apparent in the "Strategic Plan for thee U.S. Climate Change Science Program" and the recent EOS article on ACSYS. Our efforts during the last three years have already begun to produce the crucial observations, modeling, and process studies needed for the purpose of the comprehensive integration we plan. While some of them, particularly urgent ones, are being made by our PIs, others will be done by IARC national and international participants, as well as by other segments of the research community.

2. Each theme will be addressed through a coordinated set of observational and modeling studies, with specific deliverables and milestones that were presented at the OC meeting on May 25, 2004.

3. We will conduct a systematic integration of the efforts, first within each theme and then across themes by combining efforts on two, three, and eventually, all four themes.

4. Vehicles for our comprehensive synthesis will be the hydrologic cycle and the carbon cycle, both of which represent integrations of processes in the four themes, or spheres, of our research activity. We will collaborate with and entrain other international groups that are studying these cycles, which must be better understood, both qualitatively and quantitatively, if we are to "reduce the uncertainty of arctic climate change prediction."

Strategy to meet objectives

By integrating first within each theme, then across progressively larger subsets of the themes, we will progress towards higher levels of synthesis and our ultimate goal of more robust projections of arctic climate change. The cross-cutting themes of the hydrologic and carbon cycles will couple the Arctic to the larger global system, including the Arctic's effects on the global system as well as larger-scale (e.g., global) effects on the Arctic. These efforts will also provide avenues for IARC to interface with ongoing research initiatives such as Arctic CHAMP (the Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program), which is presently addressing arctic hydrology; SEARCH, which will address variations of a broader array of inter-connected components of the arctic system; and CLIC (Climate and the Cryosphere), the World Climate Research Program's successor to ACSYS. IARC's uniqueness stems from its potential to serve as an international focal point for activities relevant to such programs and its emphasis on integration and synthesis with strong international participation. Given such a nature of its mission, IARC's activities have been designed around the following components:

(a) Small lead group and a variety of participants

We believe it is best to initiate the integration effort by establishing a small team of dedicated, leading researchers. We have put in place a small group of PIs at IARC, led by an IARC Chief Scientist. The team has brought together 50 collaborating researchers from many parts of the world.

In assembling our PIs and collaborating researchers, we believe it is neither necessary, practical, nor desirable for all of them to be under the IARC roof. Many participants have joined, and will join, IARC activities from their own institutions. Thus, we can choose the best possible combination of scientists from around the world for our specific tasks and for limited periods. If it were necessary to have all participants entirely under the IARC roof, the cost would many tens of millions of dollars/yr, rather than $5M/yr.

(b) Global connection

Our strategy emphasizes the provision of improved arctic modules to the global climate modeling community, because this is one way to connect the arctic research community to the global research community. Arctic researchers must make every effort to put arctic research findings into the global framework of climate modelers. Because the arctic research community has historically been somewhat isolated, arctic research efforts are not always well recognized by the global research community. For instance, the term ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) is mentioned at least 16 times in the first 50 pages of the "Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program", while the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was not mentioned even once.

Methodology

During the initial stage, IARC will coordinate the following efforts on an international basis through participation of our team members:

1. We make specifically needed observations (namely, missing crucial observations). For example, because there were no moorings at several locations that are critical for the testing of Arctic Ocean models, we initiated NABOS (Nansen-Amundsen Basin Observing System).
2. We assemble necessary data on a pan-Arctic basis. For example, there are no systematic efforts to gather arctic CO₂ and CH₄ data on an international scale. Permafrost data are not necessarily standardized and the assembled raw data at NSIDC need additional processing in order to be used effectively in permafrost modeling activities. Thus, IARC has been supporting this effort as part of the Permafrost Database project.
3. Drawing upon the assembled data, we attempt to understand the processes involved in climate change, e.g., by sorting out natural (e.g., multi-decadal) variations from other variations.
4. We construct quantitative modules to be used in diagnosing observed climate change.
5. We experiment with models to see if we can explain the observed changes in various components of the arctic system.
6. We work with the global modeling community to ensure that the important new arctic research results and arctic modules are incorporated into a global framework, e.g., GCMs.

In order to convince the broader research community, including NSF and the NSB, of IARC's ability to take on this challenge, we have developed a flow chart of activity planned under each theme for the new Cooperative Agreement's first, second, third, and future years, together with a list of milestones and deliverables for each project in each year.

We include a number of international organizations in our efforts, including those of Japan, Canada, China, Russia, Norway, Germany, Denmark, the U.K., as well as a number of U.S. universities and research organizations.

Japanese Connection

Three Japanese organizations participate in IARC's efforts by providing their own research funds. Their participation is designed to be an integral and complementary part of CAMP, as explained below.

1. JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)
2. JAMP (Japan Arctic Modeling Project)
3. JAXA (Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency)

The JAMSTEC group (formerly a quasi-independent group, called the 'Frontier' group) became a part of IARC under its Director and Chief Scientist effective April 1, 2004. JAMSTEC's participation is currently divided into four projects:

1. Ocean Ecosystem Modeling
2. Arctic Ocean Models and Observations
3. Terrestrial Ecosystem Models and Observations
4. Arctic Atmosphere Weather and Climate Variability, Models and Observations

The Japanese university consortium group, JAMP (together with several of their federal research groups) support a major project entitled "Boreal Forest Fire Control and Forest Remediation Initiative". This project covers:

1. Atmospheric circulation
2. Atmospheric chemistry
3. Hydrologic cycle
4. Permafrost/Boreal ecosystem
5. Climate change prediction

The Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) supports an excellent satellite analysis facility at IARC.

Other Partners

NOAA/CIFAR (Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research) is a partner with IARC and John Walsh has agreed to lead this group as a part-time director beginning later in 2004.

Canadian funding authorities have approved the project entitled "Arctic Net." Dr. Gordon McBean, the leader of Theme 4 and a member of the IARC Science Advisory Board, invited John Walsh to join in the project.

The Russian Academy of Sciences Far Eastern Branch (FEBRAS) and UA/IARC signed an Agreement for Future Cooperation, which includes cruises in the Bering and Eastern Siberian Seas. Dr. Valentine Sergienko, Chairman of FERAS, visited UA/IARC during the first week of May, 2004.

Long-range Plans

During the last three years, as a first step, IARC made a great effort to establish a team, assembling PIs and collaborating researchers who are willing to join in IARC's integration effort, in addition to pursuing their own research specialties.

After this initial effort, we submitted a 5-year proposal in order to continue our planned effort, but the National Science Board would like to see some proof of performance in three years. This is understandable, because integration is indeed a difficult task. Since our original proposal was for five years, we also have plans for the 4th and 5th years (and beyond), since climate change research is a long-term undertaking.